The most active and well known scientists contributing towards FuturICT project have organized their ideas into few articles, which discuss the current situation in contemporary complex social system modeling. These articles we published in a special issue of “The European Physical Journal Special Topics”. Most of the articles are available for free, thus we invite you to familiarize yourselves with them.
In the last year we have already written that work in the context of Physics of Risk provides varying insights into very different complex systems. The previous article 1 contained brief review of Physics of Risk platform and discussions on some of the models published using it. This article received great response and was even awarded the Best Paper Award by the publisher IARIA. Continue reading “IARIA publication reviewing our different research directions” »
As we have seen previously application of the original Kirman’s model enables reproduction of single power law spectral density 1. While actual financial markets and sophisticated stochastic models 2 have double power law spectral density – i. e. fractured spectral density. Thus it would be nice to obtain fracture of spectral density by improving application of Kirman’s agent based model towards financial markets. Continue reading “Three group Kirman’s agent based model for financial markets” »
Kirman’s ant colony model, previously presented on our website as agent based (based on 1) and stochastic (based on 2, 3) model, has become classical example of herding modeling. Application of this model towards economic, financial or other social scenarios might seem doubtful as human society is far more complex than ant colony, but methodologically it is more useful to start from very simple and stylized model and later add complexity on top of it. Furthermore we have already shown that Kirman’s herding dynamics could be applicable in agent based marketing (see comparison of Kirman’s and Bass diffusion model). In this text we will consider financial market scenario and obtain stochastic differential equations similar to the existing stochastic models considered in 4, 5. Continue reading “Agent based herding model of financial markets” »
Working on Physics of Risk is very interesting and useful experience. This experience provides valuable insights into the mechanics behind various complex systems, well modeled by macroscopic models. Using our experience we are able to obtain qualitative and quantitative agreements between varying models. In our newest publication 1 we have used one-step formalism 2 to obtain macroscopic treatments of Kirman model 3.
There is an interesting phenomenon concerning behavior of ant colony. It appears that if there are two identical food sources nearby, ants exploit only one of them at a given time. The interesting thing is that used food source is not certain at any point of time. At some times switch between food sources occur though the quality of food sources remains the same. In 1993 Alan Kirman proposed that this could happen due to importance of herding behavior in ant colonies 1. Continue reading “Kirman’s ant colony model” »