The book by George A. Akerlof and Robert J. Shiller “Animal Spirits, How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism”  has inspired me to share with you these thoughts. John Maynard Keynes introduced the term “Animal spirits” in 1936 to describe the instincts, proclivities and emotions that ostensibly influence and guide human behavior in business and so impact the economic outcome and development. G. A. Akerlof and R. J. Shiller provide in this book evidence that contemporary theory of economics based on the hypotheses of efficient market and rational expectation fails to explain economic processes in the periods of global crises. They further develop the term of Animal Spirits seeking to explain the evolution of global economy in the periods of crises and depression and looking for the appropriate measures how to overcome the economic slump. Continue reading “Vygintas Gontis: “Animal Spirits” – the old term of economics forcing us to reevaluate contemporary theories” »
In the second half of the XIXth century physicists, of whom probably the most well known are Maxwell and Boltzman, worked on the explanation of empirically discovered laws of thermodynamics. While working on this problem they developed a simple model to reproduce the collisions of particles in the ideal gasses. This simple model allowed to analytically derive the distribution of energy and velocities in gasses and to lay foundations for the statistical physics. In the context of Physics of Risk it is worthwhile to mention that Maxwell and Boltzman relied not only on the empirical works by other physicists, but also on the demographical data! Boltzmann even wrote that “molecules are like so many individuals, having the most various states of motion” [1, 2]. Inspired by this quote we will briefly review, while relying on , some of the simplest kinetic models and their applications to modelling of socio-economic systems. Continue reading “Elementary kinetic exchange models” »
For the first time in history of the Cafe Scientifique organized by Student’s Scientific Association of Faculty of Physics of Vilnius University the event was recorded on the video (special thanks to the webseminarai.lt team)! Which very useful to us as we can now share for all people who are interested in the popular side of Physics of Risk. We invite everyone interested to view the video (though note that everything is presented in Lithuanian) Continue reading “Cafe Scientifique “Physics of Risk: the more physics, the less risk” video recording” »
Topic: “Physics of Risk: The more physics, the less risk”
Speaker: Aleksejus Kononovičius
Briefly: I will talk about the complexity of socio-economic systems and how physicists (and not only physicists) attempt to understand, describe and explain it. I will present some of the research done worldwide and also research done at VU ITPA.
When? 6th of November, 19:00.
Where? Cafe “Savas Kampas” (Vokiečių st. 4, Vilnius)
Organized by: VU Faculty of Physics Students Scientific Association.
Facebook event: here.
Slides: Download (without video; Lithuanian).
Last time we have written on the power spectral density and we have “analyzed” deterministic periodic time series. This time we will consider spectral densities of some stochastic processes. Continue reading “Power spectral density (part 2)” »
Here, on the Physics of Risk, we frequently talk about two essential statistical features of the time series – probability and spectral densities. The probability density function should well known to our readers – it is related to the distribution of time series values. On the Physics of Risk we have also a Lithuanian-only article on this topic (see it here). So the time has come to discuss the power spectral density. Continue reading “Power spectral density (part 1)” »
The most active and well known scientists contributing towards FuturICT project have organized their ideas into few articles, which discuss the current situation in contemporary complex social system modeling. These articles we published in a special issue of “The European Physical Journal Special Topics”. Most of the articles are available for free, thus we invite you to familiarize yourselves with them.